Inception / Team EV
Every team's share of the product's hit value, priced off what each player's rookie autos actually sell for right now. Open a team to see who drives it and how they are playing.
How the score works
Each hit card is worth its player’s market value times a weight for its kind. A team’s EV share is its total divided by the whole checklist’s total.
Rookie value is the median raw sale of that player’s 2026 Bowman Chrome base rookie auto on eBay. That is the one card every rookie has, so it compares like with like. Auctions and Buy It Now sales only. Best Offer rows are dropped because eBay shows them at the asking price.
Vets and legends use the median of all their raw autograph sales, cut to 40% so they sit on the same scale as a base rookie auto. The Vet slider adjusts that further.
What it assumes
- Odds are not out. Until Topps publishes them, every signed card counts as equally likely. Rarer cards sell for more, which roughly evens out per card. When odds post, each card gets weighted by its real pull rate.
- Dual autos count the better player in full and the second at the Dual slider value.
- Star concentration below 1 dampens one-player teams. Leave it at 1 for pure EV. Drop it if you want spot prices closer to how buyers actually pay.
- Base cards are not scored.
Read before you price
Raiders EV is one bet on one player. Mendoza autos sell for about 5x Love’s, and he hasn’t taken a snap. If he stays on the bench, that share shrinks fast.
Thin comps are flagged on each player. Four rookies had no clean Bowman Chrome base sales, so their value comes from all their 2026 autos at 40%. Proctor has two sales total.
Sources: Topps checklist via Checklist Insider, eBay sold listings, draft results from Pro Football Reference, stats from FootballDB, and Fox Sports’ Sept 30 rookie-of-the-year odds. Market data pulled Oct 7, 2026; stats through Week 4.